Investment Otaku

2009年11月4日星期三

巴菲特斥巨資收購鐵路公司

看點:

1, 為美國復甦下賭注, 因為鐵路運輸反映實體經濟活動.
2, 具前瞻性既投資, 美國政府可能為左減少碳排放而提倡火車取代貨車既物流角色
3, 配合新經濟政策, 乘發展高速鐵路之便

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett’sBerkshire Hathaway Inc. agreed to buy railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. in what he described as an “all-in wager on the economic future of the United States.”

The purchase, the largest ever for Berkshire, will cost the company $26 billion, or $100 a share in cash and stock, for the 77.4 percent of the railroad it doesn’t already own. Including his previous investment and debt assumption, the deal is valued at $44 billion, Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire said today in a statement. The railroad’s stock closed yesterday at $76.07.

Berkshire has been building a stake in the Fort Worth, Texas-based railroad for more than two years as Buffett looked for what he called an “elephant”-sized acquisition in which he could deploy his company’s cash hoard, which was more than $24 billion at the end of June. Trains stand to become more competitive against trucks with fuel prices high, he has said.

“It is Warren being Warren, taking advantage of a market that is soft at a time when the possibility for competitive bids is relatively low,” said Tom Russo, a partner at Gardner Russo & Gardner, which holds Berkshire shares. “He looks at this as a business that has advantages against other forms of transportation.”

At $100 a share, Buffett is paying 18.2 times Burlington’s estimated 2010 earnings of $5.51, according to the average analyst projection in a Bloomberg survey. That compares with the 13.4 multiple for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index as of yesterday’s close. Burlington Northern shares have dropped 13 percent in the 12 months through yesterday.

Union Pacific, CSX

Competing railroad Union Pacific Corp.’s ratio was 13, while Jacksonville, Florida-based CSX Corp.’s was 13.1, Bloomberg data show.

U.S. railroad shares advanced. Union Pacific rose $3.14, or 5.7 percent, to $58.20 at 10:29 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. CSX climbed 5.9 percent. Burlington Northern surged to $97.44. Berkshire A shares rose $1,140, or 1.2 percent, to $99,890.

The deal culminates a search by Buffett, 79, that sent him to Europe looking for possible acquisitions and lamenting in letters to shareholders that he and Vice Chairman Charles Munger couldn’t find companies they considered large enough to meaningfully add to annual earnings.

Buffett needs “elephants in order for us to use Berkshire’s flood of incoming cash,” he said in his annual letter to shareholders in 2007. “Charlie and I must therefore ignore the pursuit of mice and focus our acquisition efforts on much bigger game.”

Trains, Trucks

Burlington Northern, with pretax income of $3.37 billion on revenue of $18 billion last year, would be Berkshire’s second-largest operating unit by sales. The McLane unit, which delivers food to grocery stores and restaurants by truck, earned $276 million on revenue of $29.9 billion in 2008.

Berkshire’s largest business is insurance, with units including auto specialist Geico Corp. Buffett has said he likes insurance because he to invest the premiums paid by customers until the funds are needed to pay claims. The insurance businesses last year collectively earned $7.51 billion on revenue of $30.3 billion.

Buffett will use $16 billion in cash for the deal, half of which is being borrowed from banks and will be paid back in three annual installments, he told the CNBC. Berkshire will have more than $20 billion in consolidated cash after the purchase, he said.

Cash Hoard

“It doesn’t mean we’re out of business, but it does mean that we won’t be making any huge deals for a while,” Buffett told the network today. He said earlier this year the company needs at least $10 billion in cash to be ready for unforeseen events such as catastrophe claims at its insurance units.

Buffett built Berkshire into a $150 billion company buying firms that he deems to have durable competitive advantages. His largest purchases include the 1998 deal for General Reinsurance Corp. for more than $17 billion. Buffett expanded into power production with the purchase of MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., and last year bought Marmon Holdings Inc., the collection of more than 100 businesses, from the Pritzker family. Marmon’s Union Tank Carunit manufactures and leases railroad cars.

He expects the economy to recover, he said in an interview in September with his company’s Business Wire unit.

“We are still tossing out 14 trillion worth of product a year,” he said. “It will return. It’s already returned with most people in most ways, but it’s not back 100 percent. It’ll get there.”

The U.S. economy returned to growth in the third quarter after a yearlong contraction as government incentives spurred consumers to spend more on homes and cars. The world’s largest economy expanded at a 3.5 percent pace from July through September, Commerce Department figures showed last week.

Fuel Efficiency

Buffett is increasing his stake in an industry that doesn’t have any competitors for certain types of freight. Federal law requires some chemicals to be moved only by rail.

Railroads burn less diesel fuel than trucks for each ton of cargo carried, giving companies such as Burlington Northern and Omaha-based Union Pacific a grip on bulk commodities such as coal. That fuel-efficiency advantage also gives railroads a share of the profits from moving goods such as Asian imports of cars and other consumer goods sent to U.S. West Coast ports.

From ships, containers are loaded onto railcars to be hauled to so-called intermodal terminals, where they’re transferred to trucks for the final leg of their journey.

Buffett said in 2007 that railroads may prosper at the expense of trucks. “As oil prices go up, higher diesel fuel raises costs for rails, but it raises costs for its competitors, truckers, roughly by a factor of four,” Buffett told shareholders in 2007 at his company’s annual meeting. “There could be a lot more business there than there was in the past.”

Share Split

Berkshire’s board approved a 50-to-1 split of its Class B shares to help the acquisition, the company said. B share typically trade for about a thirtieth of the price of A shares.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Evercore Partners Inc., and Cravath Swaine & Moore LLP are advising Burlington. Berkshire didn’t disclose a financial adviser and said Munger Tolles & Olson LLP furnished legal advice.

Matthew Rose, the chief executive officer of Burlington Northern, said he struck the deal with Buffett after the two met in Texas. Buffett, named by Forbes at the second-richest American, was visiting because he has other business interests in the state, Rose said.

‘Fired Up’

“We spent a couple hours talking about the economy and the business,” Rose told Bloomberg Television. “The next day I got a call. He asked me to meet on a Friday night down in downtown Fort Worth. It was a relatively short conversation, he told me what he wanted to do. The next day we fired up the process.”

Burlington Northern operates 32,000 miles of track, with 6,700 locomotives, according to its Web site. Most of the carrier’s network is west of the Mississippi, where it competes with Union Pacific.

The U.S. Department of Justice will conduct an antitrust review, which Burlington expects to be completed by the first quarter of next year, the company said today in a conference call with analysts and investors.

Burlington Northern said two-thirds of the shares that aren’t held by Berkshire must vote in favor of the transaction for it to proceed under Delaware law. The railroad said it anticipates a shareholder meeting in the first quarter of 2010 and to close the transaction “very shortly thereafter.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Andrew Frye in New York atafrye@bloomberg.net; Hugh Son in New York at hson2@bloomberg.netLast Updated: November 3, 2009 11:05 EST

2009年10月21日星期三

IPO again

卓越置業係好值得去睇多幾眼, 當然保險巨頭既投入, 我喜愛既Commercial Property 既模式, 新保險法既支持, 好難唔去入番手.

成績應該不比當年既世茂差!

灰到呢...... 又取消了.....

2009年10月18日星期日

有感而發 20091018

我發覺香港真係一個越來越不知所謂既地方, 不單反智, 中產階層既思考方式, 就以買樓一事, 更顯出香港人將會走投無路既可悲, 香港既硬件, 法治同資訊流通仍然會維持下去, 否則唔會有大量內地資金湧入, 內地入利用香港得天獨厚既優勢加上本身勤奮, 只會變成另一批"四代前香港人".

香港人依家有錢/無錢都怨呢樣, 怨個樣...... 到底大家明唔明香港人既問題, 唔係民主自由普選六大產業, 係香港人本身實在太戇鳩, 呢種戇鳩病由一眾中上階層人士一直傳染至普羅大眾.

基本思考嚴重缺乏, 無承擔, 咩撚都係社會既錯, 就算我錯都係你唔岩.

香港地方咁細, 為何要駕車? 點解中產要有車? 當然我都想有車, 目的只係希望方便日後太太有BB 時, 較方便接送, 的士係替代品. Sunday Driver? 香港咩地方係去唔到? 徵結在於性價比 c/p ratio.

我都曾經要深夜由中環既公司返回新界既屋企, 但係咁樣係一個原因要係公司附近買一間只係訓覺既假豪宅嗎? C/P ratio 呢?

律師們, 醫生們, 你唔住港島會死的麼? 怕比同行睇小? 定自己自卑心作祟? 我住了一陣子的港島東區, 其實上班時間比起我依家返工時間係差唔多, 日後鐵路網起好後, 通載時間係一小時之內...... 從理財角度, 九龍區既物價亦比港島區平.

大家可以問下身邊既朋友
住港島區既代價是否大於:
住新界樓+養車
住新界鐵路沿線+日日坐頭等
住九龍鐵路沿線樓

2009年9月29日星期二

重臨IPO

中冶, 匹克, 華南城, 之前IPO 既搵錢美夢看似一一破滅, 一言以蔽之, 基本因素與估值不相乎, 包燒傷, 保賤人吹得天花龍鳳.

當然也不是沒有好東西, 只是仲未出場, 豐益中國同民生銀行會係上上之選, 市況差而又肯上既話, 只要訂價合理, 好股此中尋

2009年9月25日星期五

Signal No.1


全球主要央行週四宣佈,隨著金融市場逐步穩定,它們將削減注入銀行體系的美元資金。



  美聯儲(FED)表示,其將從2010年初開始削減短期資金拍賣規模,而歐洲央行、瑞士央行以及英國央行也宣佈,將收緊向金融體系注入美元流動性的步伐。


   各央行此次聯合行動暗示,全球各國已經開始逐步收回額外刺激措施。在這場上世紀30年代大蕭條以來最嚴重的金融危機爆發後,各國央行向銀行和金融體系注入了大量資金,以維持市場穩定。


  在上述央行採取聯合行動的當下,二十國集團(G20)領導人正在美國匹茲堡會晤,探討後危機時代的全球經濟。預計G20領導人將承諾協調退出刺激措施的步伐。



  分析師們表示,央行的上述舉動表明,它們認為銀行面臨的短期資金需求壓力已經緩解。但分析師們同時指出,此舉不應該看作是各國政府退出刺激措施的一步,因為經濟依舊十分脆弱。


  美聯儲表示,將收緊資金拍賣的規模和期限,但在明年1月份之前,將繼續通過短期標售工具(TAF)向市場提供短期資金。美聯儲指出,將預期在年底可能出現的市場壓力考慮在內,對資金拍賣進行了調整。具體調整方案為︰在10月份將84天期資金拍賣規模削減至500億美元,而後分別在11和12月份將這一拍賣規模進一步削減至250億美元,並收緊這些拍賣資金的到期期限。美聯儲同時表示,將考慮把部分類型的短期資金拍賣永久化。


  歐洲央行表示,將縮減美元流動性供應,至僅提供七天期的美元資金。該央行稱,將在明年1月前繼續提供美元資金,但將在10月6日完成最後一次操作後停止84天期美元回購操作,不過,未來如有需要,其可能重啟這項流動性操作。歐洲央行稱,美元操作將繼續以定息向銀行提供資金,且將滿足所有需求。此外,該央行還表示,將在明年1月31日前繼續提供七天瑞郎回購操作。


  英國央行表示,將在10月6日最後一次操作完成後暫停三個月美元的附買回操作,但將在2010年1月前繼續提供七天期美元資金。該央行指出,鑒於上述操作的使用普遍減少,在10月初的最後一次操作後,各央行將不再進行目前的84天期附買回操作。


  瑞士央行也表示,將在明年1月前繼續提供七天期的美元流動性,以及通過歐元-瑞郎外匯互換提供七天期的瑞郎流動性,但將因市況改善而停止84天期的美元流動性操作。(財華社)




2009年9月18日星期五

堅持

對大市看法仍然無改變, 熊二仍然係熊二, 投資仍然以月供為主, 但最近為手上既長線基金組合作出調動, 將所有股票基金換馬至實質回報基金, 該類基金主要投資係通脹掛鈎固定收益工具.  對最近的新股興趣不大, 唯獨民生銀行會考慮參與IPO.

就算恆指升破32000, 我看錯市, 照現在既投資分佈和組合, 都會有滿意的回報.  小弟十二月時, 會報考ACCA, 現在緊張準備當中......

2009年9月9日星期三

無恥的新彊政府

天下烏鴉一樣黑, 手法都係抹黑, 模糊事實真相.  呢位老人家, 六十年來就係咁既德性, 唔死都無用......

Anyway, 王樂泉, 請盡快落黃泉!

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